Value bets are an essential strategy for those looking to bet intelligently and profitably. They represent the key to delivering successful predictions and are an opportunity to attract more active players and improve your conversions. In this article you will discover why value bets and affiliation go hand in hand, we will explain in detail what a value bet is, how to identify it and how to take advantage of it in affiliate marketing for sports betting and online gambling with Affiliabet.
A value bet occurs when the actual probability of an event is greater than the probability implied by the odds offered by the bookmaker.
Each odds offered by a bookmaker reflects the probability they estimate for a given outcome to occur. However, these estimates are not always accurate and can be affected by miscalculations, market movements or betting public bias.
The goal of a professional bettor is to identify when a bookmaker’s odds are higher than they really should be.
To understand this better, let’s first look at how an odds are converted into implied odds.
To improve security, bookmakers are obliged to implement identification tools, such as facial recognition, and to operate with ‘.bet.br’ domains. The use of credit cards to finance bets has also been banned, avoiding excessive indebtedness of players.
🏆 Formula for the probability implied by a quota
Implied probability = 1 / Quota
Example:
If a bookmaker offers a odds of 2.50 for a team to win a match, the implied probability is:
1 / 2.50 = 0.40 = 40%
This means that, according to the bookmaker, that team has a 40% chance of winning.
📊 Comparison with the real probability
Now, let’s assume that a bettor has conducted an in-depth analysis based on statistics, team performance, injuries and other factors. As a result, he concludes that the actual probability of that team winning is 50%.
If the actual probability is higher than the probability implied by the odds, then there is a value bet.
To confirm whether there is value, we use this formula:
Value = (Actual Probability × Odds) – 1
Substitute the values:
(0.50×2.50)-1 = 1.25-1 = 0.25
The result is positive (0.25 or 25%), which means that this is a value bet. In the long run, if you place this type of bet consistently, you will make a profit.
Practical example of a value bet
Let’s imagine a football match between Real Betis and Real Madrid. Bookmakers offer the following odds for the outcome of the match:
- Real Betis win: 4.20
- Draw: 3.50
- Real Madrid win: 1.73
To determine if there is a value bet, we must first calculate the probability implied by each odds, which by applying this formula:
- Real Betis win: 1 / 4.20 = 0.2381 (23.81%)
- Draw: 1 / 3.50 = 0.2857 (28.57%)
- Real Madrid win: 1 / 1.73 = 0.5780 (57.80%)
Let’s assume that, after a detailed analysis, we estimate that the real probability of Real Madrid winning is 65% (0.65). To check if there is a value bet on Real Madrid winning, we apply the formula Value = (Estimated Probability×Quota) – 1
Substituting the values:
(0.65×1.73)−1=1.1245−1=0.1245
As the result is positive (0.1245), this indicates that betting on Real Madrid to win offers a positive expected value. In other words, according to our estimation, the probability of Real Madrid winning is higher than the bookmaker’s odds suggest, making this a value bet.
Why are value bets important for bettors?
Value bets are essential for bettors because they eliminate dependence on chance and allow them to bet with a mathematical edge. Instead of relying on hunches or following the market trend, a bettor looking for value bets makes decisions based on objective data, statistics and analysis. This gives him a real chance of being profitable in the long run.
In addition, by focusing on odds that are poorly adjusted by bookmakers, he can take advantage of mistakes and find opportunities where the real odds are in his favour. Bettors who apply this strategy in a disciplined manner can improve their results and increase their bankroll over time.
Why are value bets key for tipsters?
Tipsters looking to build a loyal and profitable community need to offer forecasts based on value betting. This allows them to differentiate themselves from tipsters who only follow trends or bet without in-depth analysis.
By recommending value bets, tipsters build trust among their followers. A tipster who demonstrates that his strategy is profitable will attract more bettors interested in following his advice and will therefore be able to better monetise his audience through affiliate marketing.
In addition, value betting allows:
✅ Reduce reliance on luck and bet with a mathematical edge.
✅ Improve long-term profitability by betting only when there is a real opportunity.
✅ Build fan loyalty, because data-driven strategies build trust.
Followers of a tipster who promotes value bets tend to be more informed and engaged players, making them an ideal audience for affiliate strategies.
How to use value betting in sports betting and online gambling affiliate marketing
Affiliate marketing in the betting industry allows affiliates to earn money by referring players to bookmakers. Value betting is an excellent tool for attracting active and repeat players, increasing affiliate revenue at Affiliabet. Here are some effective strategies for affiliates using value betting:
1. Create educational content
Publishing articles, videos and guides explaining what value bets are and how to find them is a great strategy to attract players interested in value betting.
2. Providing useful tools
Value betting calculators and odds scanning software are available to facilitate the identification of profitable opportunities.
Affiliates can promote these tools in their content and link them with affiliate links to recommended bookmakers.
3. Create a private community
Value bettors are looking for reliable information. Creating a Telegram, Discord or WhatsApp group where value betting tips are shared can generate a loyal community and increase conversions in affiliate programmes.
If users trust the quality of the tips, they will be more willing to sign up with recommended bookmakers.
4. Compare odds between bookmakers
An effective strategy is to show odds comparisons and highlight the odds that offer the most value on a given event.
This type of content is not only useful for bettors, but also incentivises sign-ups through affiliate links.
Value betting is not only essential for professional punters, but also for tipsters and affiliates who want to maximise their income.
Specialising in value betting will allow you to build a loyal audience and increase your reputation. Focusing on players who are looking for profitable strategies can improve the quality of your referrals and increase your revenue with Affiliabet.
If you know how to win with value betting, it’s time to take it to the next level. With Affiliabet, turn your knowledge into passive income.
